The Horn of Africa is bracing for a potential war as tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea escalate, with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed pushing for direct access to the Red Sea. The country lost its access to the sea when Eritrea gained independence in 1993, and since then, Ethiopia has had to rely on neighboring countries, such as Djibouti, for trade.
Background to the Conflict
The conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea dates back to the 1990s, when the two countries fought a brutal war over border disputes. The 2018 peace agreement between the two countries had offered a glimmer of hope, but recent developments suggest that the situation is once again deteriorating. According to the US Department of State, the peace agreement was a significant step forward, but the implementation of the agreement has been slow.
Abiy Ahmed’s push for access to the sea is driven by the need to reduce Ethiopia’s dependence on neighboring countries for trade. Currently, a large portion of Ethiopia’s trade passes through Djibouti, which is a costly undertaking for the landlocked nation. The Ethiopian government wants to reduce this dependence and have direct control over its trade, which is being resisted by coastal states.
External Interests
Some analysts believe that external interests are playing a significant role in the conflict. The United Arab Emirates is considered an ally of Ethiopia, and some believe that the UAE’s interests in the region are driving Ethiopia’s push for access to the sea. However, the UAE is under pressure due to conflicts in the Persian Gulf, and it is likely that the country will reduce its presence in the Horn of Africa in the near future.
Here are some key points to consider:
- Ethiopia lost access to the Red Sea when Eritrea gained independence in 1993
- The 2018 peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea offered a glimmer of hope, but the implementation of the agreement has been slow
- Abiy Ahmed’s push for access to the sea is driven by the need to reduce Ethiopia’s dependence on neighboring countries for trade
- External interests, such as those of the United Arab Emirates, are playing a significant role in the conflict
The situation in the Horn of Africa is complex, and the potential for war is high. As the situation continues to escalate, it is essential to understand the underlying causes of the conflict and the role that external interests are playing.
