With petrol prices increasing rapidly due to Middle East tensions, new research presented by the Localisation Support Fund (LSF) has highlighted sorghum-based biofuels as a potential solution to South Africa’s growing fuel vulnerability. Speaking at the presentation, Josie Rowe-Setz from Blueprint Holdings said South Africa’s increasing dependence on imported refined fuel has left the country highly exposed to global oil price volatility and geopolitical instability.
A number of the country’s last major coastal oil refineries closed in 2022 and 2023. South Africa now imports approximately 75% of its liquid fuel requirements in already-refined form – a fundamental shift from refiner to refined product importer that has deepened the country’s exposure to global supply chains, Gulf region geopolitics, and the volatility of the rand-dollar exchange rate, as explained on the Department of Energy website.
Sorghum Biofuels as a Solution
The study argues that South Africa possesses several advantages that could support a domestic biofuels industry, including extensive agricultural land, an established agro-processing sector and the long-standing cultivation of sorghum across the continent. Rowe-Setz said sorghum-based ethanol production was technically feasible and nearing commercial viability.
Under the model used in the study — based on an exchange rate of R16.50 to the dollar, Brent crude oil at $80 per barrel and a 15% cost of capital — grain sorghum ethanol production falls short of breakeven by only R0.82 per litre. She noted that a modest 1.5% improvement in average dryland sorghum yields would eliminate the shortfall. For more information on biofuels, visit the Wikipedia biofuels page.
Comparison of Feedstocks
Rowe-Setz noted that grain sorghum is not merely close to being viable, but is the best-performing feedstock of the six configurations that the model assesses. The comparison of feedstocks is as follows:
- Grain sorghum: R0.82 per litre deficit
- Sweet sorghum: R6.09 per litre deficit
- New-build sugar plant: R1.63 per litre deficit
- Converted sugar plant: R3.22 per litre deficit
- Off-specification maize: R2.92 per litre deficit
Rowe-Setz said South Africa’s total dependence on imported crude oil remains a structural weakness. Every barrel of crude oil that feeds the country’s refineries is imported, principally from the Middle East and the Rest of Africa.</p)
