Following the decision by the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave interest rates unchanged, the latest data from TransUnion points to a consumer environment that remains fragile, with many households continuing to navigate mounting financial pressure. The South African Reserve Bank governor, Lesetja Kganyago, announced the decision, which may offer a sense of short-term stability, but does little to ease the underlying financial strain facing households.
Consumer Behaviour Under Pressure
Insights from the TransUnion Q4 2025 Consumer Pulse Study (CPS) show that households have already begun adjusting their behaviour in response to financial stress. More than half of consumers report cutting discretionary spending, while a significant portion have reduced clothing purchases, delayed major expenses, and scaled back on services such as subscriptions and digital platforms.
At the same time, the study indicates a growing reliance on credit, with a notable share of consumers using credit to manage shortfalls in their monthly budgets. The behavioural shift is reinforced by credit performance trends from the TransUnion Q4 2025 Industry Insights Report (IIR), which highlights continued strain in key segments. Credit card delinquency remains elevated at 17.4% (balance-level), while non-bank personal loan delinquency is critically high at 53.4% (consumer-level).
Financial Vulnerability
These figures highlight deep vulnerability among financially stretched consumers, with short-term credit products showing the most acute distress. Although home loan delinquency remains relatively stable at 7.5%, it is still elevated, pointing to persistent pressure even within more structured credit products. According to Fatgie Adams, Head of Credit Risk Solutions at TransUnion, “Consumers may appear stable on the surface, but in reality, many are already in a form of financial triage.”
A flat rate environment simply provides time to prepare, it does not remove the pressure. With fuel prices expected to rise sharply in the coming months and food costs remaining persistently high, the overall cost of living is likely to increase further, placing additional strain on already stretched household budgets. As noted by the Statistics South Africa website, the combination of higher living costs, constrained income growth, and existing debt obligations means that many consumers will struggle to make ends meet.
- Credit card delinquency remains elevated at 17.4% (balance-level)
- Non-bank personal loan delinquency is critically high at 53.4% (consumer-level)
- Home loan delinquency remains relatively stable at 7.5%, but still elevated
